COVID-19 and the Spanish flu: how these pandemics have affected New York and what they have in common

Experts compared the coronavirus to the Spanish flu that hit New York in 1918 and killed about 33 of its residents. What is common between these pandemics, told the publication CNN.

New York's deaths in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were comparable to those in the city at the height of the deadliest pandemic in history, the 1918 influenza pandemic, a new study found.

According to a study published Aug.13 in the JAMA Network Open, the relative increase in deaths in the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic was significantly greater than during the peak period of the 1918 pandemic. “The main takeaway is that when we compare what happened, we find that the magnitude of the change in the number of deaths (for example, how big a shock to the system it is) of the two pandemics is very similar,” said study co-author Jeremy Faust, emergency physician from Brigham and Women's Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School. - COVID-19 is a bigger shock for today's healthcare system. This disease is much more damaging than the 1918 flu. ”

On the subject: Nine times infectious: a new strain of coronavirus is spreading in the US and Europe

According to Faust, if you compare the first two months of the pandemic in New York with the worst two months of the pandemic in New York a hundred years ago, then during the COVID-19 period, the number of deaths per capita exceeded 70%. “Who knows what would have happened if we had not had modern intensive care units, if we could not have treated secondary infections with antibiotics, connected people to artificial lung ventilation devices or oxygen cylinders,” the researcher muses.

If you had to compare the two pandemics, then, according to him, the coronavirus is worse. “We will never know for sure because, fortunately, we now have the opportunity to save more lives. But even with all our technologies and medical progress, when the mortality rate was 70% lower than in the worst days of 1918, then I think that people do not understand how serious this is, ”added Faust.

Experts estimate that the 1918 flu infected a third of the world's population and killed an estimated 50 million people. As with today's pandemic, it has affected some communities more than others.

This study includes only data specific to New York. It cannot be used to characterize the extent of the coronavirus pandemic in other cities or nationwide. New York was hit hard at the start of the pandemic, and since then, other cities have learned from what helped stop the virus from spreading in its early stages, experts say.

John Barry, author of The Great Influenza in 2004, found the study's findings surprising. However, he believes that the 1918 pandemic was "significantly more virulent" than the COVID-19 pandemic, at least for the country. “I guess when New York was hit, we didn't know how to deal with it yet. We know much more now, ”said Barry. - I think the number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic in New York is much higher. Even so, I was surprised that there is no greater difference in these numbers. "

In terms of death toll, the situation in New York in 1918 was much better than in many other cities, Barry said. The pandemic hit the city in the spring. As a result, 33 thousand people died from the Spanish flu - compared to many other cities, this was not much.

On the subject: CDC: 25% of New Yorkers have had coronavirus

Barry also said that with the COVID-19 pandemic, doctors have more options for caring for patients. Although there is no cure for the virus, the auxiliary medical care provided by doctors is now at a higher level than in 1918. “In 1918, there was simply no relief aid,” Barry said.

Faust added: "We don't have to wait until the end to look back and see that these events are similar in scope." “If we don't take this really seriously, then in a year we will probably be looking at the same numbers that we saw in 1918,” he warned.