Double viral strike: scientists warn the world is threatened by 'tweendemia'
'05.10.2021'
Nurgul Sultanova-Chetin
Amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, scientists are warning of a new danger. If the fourth wave comes during the SARS / influenza season, it will hit the health system around the world. It can cost tens, even hundreds of thousands of lives. with the BBC talks about the threat of a "double blow" or "tweendemia".
Calm before the storm
The SARS and influenza season comes to the Northern Hemisphere with the first cold weather and lasts almost until mid-March. Last year, the situation was not so difficult, because schools were closed, and adults stayed at home. Simply put, there was no one to spread the infection.
So, in the United States, the virus usually takes 20-60 thousand lives, 200 of which are children. And last year there was only one death in a child. In total, from September to March in the entire 330 millionth country, there were barely fifteen hundred patients with influenza.
The situation is completely different this year. In countries where most of the population has already been vaccinated against COVID-19, restrictions are lifted. Adults are gradually returning to offices, restaurants, and children to schools. It is quite natural that ARVI statistics have crept up.
In Russia, the incidence of SARS and influenza has doubled over the past month. According to Rospotrebnazdor on September 30, in 62 regions the epidemic has already been officially recorded and continues to gain momentum.
At the same time, a second wave of COVID-19 is developing. The statistics of new cases of Covid-19 in Russia have been steadily growing for three weeks now and is clearly not going to stop.
“We face the threat of an epidemic of two respiratory viruses at once, and as a result, the healthcare system can easily become overwhelmed, not coping with the flow of patients,” warns Daniel Solomon, professor at Harvard University School of Medicine.
Most epidemiological experts confirm this prediction, arguing that returning to normal life will inevitably lead to an outbreak of habitual infections.
Trouble does not come alone
"Of course, you can't be sure of anything in advance, but I think this winter we will see a significant increase in the incidence of both the flu and the HRSV virus in the lower respiratory tract," said David Matthews, professor of virology at the University of Bristol's School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine. -
That is, two viruses that were suppressed last winter [by restrictive measures] are about to return to us. ”
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Professor Matthews reminds statistics to those who consider the flu to be a safe disease. Every year, a "harmless" virus (and associated complications) claims about 650 thousand lives. So, according to him, one should not underestimate both of these infections.
Elderly people and children are at risk
At risk are elderly people with chronic diseases and children with not yet strengthened immunity. Elderly people are twice vulnerable amid a pandemic. Unlike coronavirus, which is usually relatively easy to carry in childhood. They have a much higher chance of getting seriously ill and going to the hospital.
“It's common for a child to be admitted to intensive care with the flu,” says David Matthews.
He added that for the young and healthy, the flu is rather an annoying nuisance. But we know that the flu takes tens and hundreds of thousands of lives every year. David thinks we are very lucky to be able to get the flu shot. You can't fight HRSV - although the development of a vaccine has been going on for several decades.
Ann Johnson, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at University College London and President of the British Academy of Medical Sciences, points to another potential danger: the flu is known to mutate quite significantly from year to year. Sometimes - about once every 10 years - this leads to the emergence of a new, more dangerous strain. This, for example, happened in 2009, when the outbreak of swine flu that began in Mexico grew into a global epidemic.
There will be no lockdown
The good news, she said, is that no new lockdown will be required. To fight the flu, the measures we are already familiar with are ideal: wearing masks, washing our hands regularly and thoroughly, maintaining social distance, and most importantly, getting vaccinated. Professor Matthews is convinced that this year it is better to get a flu shot, even for those who have never done it before. In order to protect to the maximum not only himself, but also those around him.
“There is nothing to talk about or to argue about, there’s nothing to discuss at all,” he assures. - Just go and graze. I have already grafted myself. "
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Against the background of mass vaccination from coronavirus, scientists even conducted a special study to find out if it is possible to do both vaccinations in a row with a short break and in what order they work best. The answer is unequivocal - you can even right in one day.
The expert says that, of course, no vaccine is capable of providing guaranteed and complete protection against the disease. But she, for sure, will save you from getting to the hospital. He adds that the most effective known defense method should never be ignored. And Professor Matthews compares the injection of the vaccine to car seat belts.
“When you get in your car and put on your seat belt, you’re not doing this because you’re about to get into an accident, are you? And not because the belt provides a guarantee that in the event of an accident you will survive or not suffer serious injuries. And you buckle up because if an accident does happen, the belt will fundamentally increase your chances of a successful outcome ”.
