For the first time in 20 years, a Republican can become the governor of New York: polls show the growth of Zeldin's popularity
'24.10.2022'
Nadezhda Verbitskaya
New York Gov. Katie Hokul has been criticizing Republican opponent Lee Zeldin all summer for his support of Donald Trump and his opposition to abortion. But now it suddenly turned out that this does not work - crime and the economy are replacing unrest in the minds of voters because of abortion rights and the adventures of the 45th President of the United States, writes Yahoo News.
Hokul figured this out just a few weeks before the election and started focusing on job creation and fighting crime instead of criticizing Zeldin.
“You deserve to feel safe,” Hokul says in a new television ad released October 22. “And as your governor, I won’t stop working until you feel it.”
Zeldin, a congressman from Long Island, holds press conferences near subway stations in New York almost daily. So he tries to draw attention to violent crimes. He claims that Hokul cannot cope with them, and he supposedly will be able to curb lawlessness in New York.
It looks like voters are beginning to believe him.
New Polls Show Rising Support for Zeldin
Support for both candidates is now almost at the same level. Small numbers in the gap scare Democrats after two decades of dominance in New York state.
A poll by Siena College on October 18 showed Hokul leading Zeldin by 11 percentage points, up from 17 points a month ago.
Later that day, the Quinnipiac University poll was released. According to his data, Hokul's advantage was only 4%. Respondents polled by Quinnipiac also ranked crime as their number one worry — even ahead of defending democracy.
Hokul tries to catch up
Hokul advisers say the governor's final address ahead of the November 8 vote will highlight themes of fighting crime and boosting employment. And, in particular, the concrete actions she has taken since taking office last year.
“Those are the things we'll have to talk to voters more about because they're important to voters,” State Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs said in an interview before criticizing Zeldin. He can complain and whine. He does it very well. And she works. That's the difference."
So far, Hokul has focused mainly on abortion rights and Zeldin's support for Trump. But Zeldin himself insisted that general election voters were more concerned about crime and housing affordability.
It was the idea of a tough fight against crime that led Republican Rudy Giuliani to victory in the election of the mayor of New York in 1993. And last year, that same idea made Democrat Eric Adams, a former NYPD captain, mayor.
Hokul and Democrats are preparing a double strike
The Democratic campaign is looking at a dual message on Election Day: hitting Zeldin for his pro-Trump and anti-abortion stances, but also paying more attention to Hokul's track record of fighting crime and boosting the economy.
They hope that the 20-year streak of Democratic rule in New York State will continue. Although the survey data play into the hands of Zeldin.
On the subject: Elections in New York-2022: what you need to know and how to vote
Zeldin's task is difficult
He needs to unite all Republicans without alienating Trump supporters, and also win the votes of independent voters, who outnumber the Republican Party in New York. But that's not all - in order to win, he needs to win over a part of the disappointed Democrats.
To win, Zeldin needs to win at least 30% of the vote in New York City, a Democratic stronghold. The Republican will traditionally easily conquer the suburbs and upstate New York, but there may be problems with the city.
If Zeldin gets a third of the popular vote in New York City and does not lose the traditionally Republican upstate, he can win in the same scenario as George Pataki, a Republican who was governor of New York until 2006 (after winning the 2002 election ). He is the last Republican to rule New York.
The Quinnipiac poll showed a glimmer of hope for Zeldin. He is supported by 37% of voters in the city. He has 52% support in the upstate, compared to 44% for Hokul.
