Which neighborhoods in New York are most affected by COVID-19: a study

Nearly 1,5 million coronavirus antibody tests have been performed in New York City. The findings helped to understand how deeply the virus has penetrated rich and poor areas and who is at risk in the event of a second wave of the pandemic. The newspaper shared the results of the study New York Times.

18 August promulgated findings testing, which has done more than 1,46 million tests for antibodies to coronavirus in New York City. This is the most massive testing to date. The findings helped to understand how deeply the virus has penetrated the poorer areas of the metropolis, and how it continues to cover the neighborhoods where the predominantly wealthy New Yorkers live.

An astonishingly high test result has been recorded in a neighborhood in Queens, where more than 50% of people tested have antibodies.

At the same time, none of the ZIP codes south of Manhattan's 96th Street had positive results exceeding 20%.

Across the city, over 27% of those tested tested positive for antibodies. The highest rates were recorded in the Bronx at 33%, while in Manhattan the lowest at 19%.

These findings are likely to reignite the debate about whether certain areas or communities may be moving closer to developing so-called herd immunity. This effect contains the virus, preventing it from spreading widely within the community.

On the subject: CDC: 25% of New Yorkers have had coronavirus

So far, public data on antibodies in New York has been limited. CityMD, which plays a key role in the city's testing program, has shared some data from its network of ambulance clinics.

Earlier, the office of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo released details of a study that tested approximately 28 people across the state. It turned out that approximately 419% of New York City residents have antibodies to COVID-21,6.

Antibody test data, released Aug. 18, covers over 15% of New Yorkers. These include all antibody test results reported to the New York City Department of Health.

Here's what these results allowed us to understand.

Pandemic-hit areas can weather second wave more easily

It is not yet clear how protected those who have been identified with antibodies to coronavirus, and how long this protection may last. However, there is an assumption that the more people in a particular area were infected at the height of the outbreak (March-April 2020), the less susceptible they are to infection during the second wave.

But areas in which few of the residents have been ill may be more vulnerable if the epidemic resumes.

Some researchers have expressed the hope that it is necessary for about half of the people in the area to have antibodies to the virus to develop herd immunity against the coronavirus, while others have suggested a higher threshold of 70%.

Of course, the districts are not isolated from each other, and even according to the most optimistic forecasts, most of them (including millions of New Yorkers) remain vulnerable to infection during the second wave.

However, the relatively high prevalence of the virus may partly explain why New York has not seen a significant spike in incidence in the past few months, even as the city has begun to reopen and some New Yorkers have become less serious about social distancing.

Many epidemiologists are surprised by the relatively low rate of new infections in New York. They attribute this to compliance with social distancing guidelines, wearing protective masks and banning bars and restaurants. “If antibody tests accurately identify those who are infected, and if those antibodies are protective, then some communities in New York are close to achieving herd immunity, such as Neighborhood Corona in Queens,” said Professor El-Sadr. "It's an intriguing thought."

The results, released Tuesday, showed that 51,6% of people tested with a single ZIP code in Corona tested positive for antibodies.

New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Dave Chokshi cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from the test results as there are still many unresolved questions about immunity. “Remaining vigilant about precautions such as hand washing, distancing, wearing face masks and self-isolation in the event of illness is essential to keep transmission low,” he said.

Areas with large households are more vulnerable to the virus

The largest number of people with antibodies to coronavirus was found in the Corona neyborhud (ZIP code 11368) - about 23%. Mostly Hispanics live there, including many builders and restaurant workers. Many of them had to work throughout the pandemic, which increased the risk of infection.

This part of Queens is known for its high population density, which may also partially explain the test results. Inter-household transmission is a major factor in the spread of the disease, experts say.

The ZIP code with the second highest rate of positive antibody tests is located at Borough Park's Neighborhood in South Brooklyn. There, over 46,8% of antibody tests were positive.

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Borough Park is home to the largest community of Orthodox Jews outside Israel. Large households are common here, and community lifestyles are also likely to be a factor in the massive spread of the virus. Many Hasidic Jews fell ill in early March, just after Purim.

The lowest infection rate (where 12,4% of those tested had antibodies to COVID-19) came from a tiny ZIP code in Queens, consisting of just a couple of waterfront blocks in Long Island City. The next lowest rates were in Manhattan, where fewer than 13% of people tested had antibodies in multiple ZIP codes. The lowest rates in Manhattan (12,6%) were found in one ZIP code on the Upper East Side and the other in the Upper West Side.

In Brooklyn, the ZIP code with the lowest rate of positive antibody tests (13,2%) includes most of Park Slope, a residential area in Brooklyn with a predominantly wealthy white New Yorker population.

Antibodies were found especially often in children

Among different age groups, antibodies to coronavirus were most often found in those who were under 17 years old (32,6% of positive tests).

But the data may not be of much use in the school reopening debate, as children were also the least likely age group to be tested - about 6500 per 100 people tested, compared with almost 27500 per 100 people at age 45. -64 years tested.

The test results were also not divided by region according to age.

People aged 45-64 were more likely to have a positive antibody level (28%) than adults in other age groups.

More often, antibodies were found in men (28%) than in women (25%).

In ZIP codes, which are predominantly poor in New Yorkers, more than 30% of those tested had antibodies to the coronavirus. In the same place where wealthier New Yorkers lived, antibodies were found in about 18,5% of people.

The data did not include disaggregation by race or ethnicity.

Other evidence suggests that blacks and Hispanic New Yorkers have significantly higher rates of hospitalization or death (adjusted for age) due to COVID-19 than whites.

Testing accuracy varies greatly

Moreover, most of the antibody tests were done for people who were eager to do them. That is, testing is not selective.

On the subject: Where and how New Yorkers can get a free COVID antibody test

It appears that New Yorkers in some areas with lower infection rates were more likely to seek antibody testing.

It's also worth noting that in the wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods of Manhattan, about 30% of people have been tested for antibodies. But, for example, in the neyborhud Corona, where the percentage of positive results was the highest, less than a quarter of people were tested.