Climate change: what natural disasters the UN predicts for New York

New York must immediately stop using fossil fuels and switch to renewable energy. This will limit the inevitable impact of climate change, experts said in response to the latest United Nations climate change report. Gothamist.

The projections described in the report for low-lying coastal cities such as New York, are gloomy. With more deadly heatwaves and rising sea levels, parts of Lower Manhattan could become uninhabitable in this generation unless action is taken to limit global warming.

The assessment was published on February 28 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the past two weeks, representatives from 195 UN member countries have met to reach a consensus on how global warming affects nature, agriculture and human health. The report also gives lawmakers a roadmap on the potential and constraints for people to adapt to these changes.

It's time to act

Their message to the world is clear: The time to act is now, or low-lying coastal cities such as New York, which are most at risk, can expect a future of even hotter temperatures and more flood as a result of rising sea levels, severe storms and increased rainfall.

On the subject: First flood barrier erected in New York

This assessment is the sixth made by the group. And it leaves no doubt that the planet is at a turning point, and some of the consequences are already irreversible. According to the IPCC report, even under a scenario of significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the likelihood that global warming will approach 2040 or exceed 1,5 degrees Celsius is now over 50%. The planet is already an average of 1,1 degrees Celsius warmer than it was in 1850-1900. According to Kohler, the planet is moving towards reaching 2 degrees or more.

“If we take the most aggressive action in the world, we can hardly do better than stop global warming at 1,5 degrees Celsius,” Kohler said. “This is a very risky move because, frankly, it becomes difficult to predict exactly what will happen when the temperature gets this high.”

Long summers and rising temperatures

For the New York metropolitan area, the climate forecast includes longer, hotter, and more frequent heatwaves. The report describes how these changes will affect a person's physical and mental health. Over the past decade, New York has averaged about 350 deaths each year from the heat. These rates are twice as high among black residents.

The IPCC report explains how these patterns will worsen over time, affecting how often people can be outside for work or leisure because temperatures are too high to tolerate. This is a major problem for New York City, which is experiencing an urban heat island effect. The very material that forms the urban landscape - concrete and asphalt - absorbs heat and can raise daytime temperatures up to 17 degrees during the day and up to 15 degrees Celsius in the evenings.

In lower income areas, the impact is even more severe due to the lack of “green space” resulting from structural racism in housing and infrastructure development. Planting as many trees as possible, expanding parks and maximizing green rooftops are all very effective ways to combat increased heat, Kohler says.

Even limiting global warming to a best-case scenario of 1,5 degrees Celsius of warming would still cause irreparable harm. Since 1950, sea levels in the metropolitan area have risen by almost 22 cm, and the rate is accelerating - increasing by 2,5 cm every seven to eight years. Currently, 310 square kilometers of New York is only 1,8 meters above sea level, making it prone to storm flooding.

Extreme floods will increase by about 20%

About half a million people live in these areas, 2400 km of road, 100 public schools - all of which are estimated at more than $100 billion in value, according to research organization Climate Central. The highest level of flooding was recorded by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 at a height of 2,7 meters above high tide.

According to the IPCC report, extreme flooding is estimated to increase by about 20% if sea levels rise by about 2040 cm from 15 levels by 2020. Precipitation doubles if the seas rise almost 70 cm higher. Daniel Van Abs, Professor of Water, Society and Environment Practice at Rutgers University, predicts an increase of at least 30cm by 2050.

In addition to making parts of Lower Manhattan uninhabitable due to rising sea levels, this will also affect the subway, sewer and ferry networks.

This flooding will be exacerbated by an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms. Three major storms hit the city last year, including the remnants of Hurricane Ida, which brought record rainfall, killing at least 13 people and shutting down the subway. The cost of damage amounted to tens of billions of dollars.

Combined with rising sea levels, future storms could mean waterlogging when moderate to heavy rain falls. With all of the city's power plants located in storm surge zones, this could mean a loss of power.

Wastewater treatment systems can also be damaged. As sea levels rise, salt water destroys pumps and electrical parts of wastewater treatment plants. Sewage clogging, such as that experienced during Ida, can become common in pipes that are usually located right at sea level, causing sewage back-up and flooding.

“In the days following [Sandy], we put a lot of sewage back into the harbor,” Van Abs said. “It’s very damaging and expensive to recover.”

In addition to floods, the region also suffers from aridity.

The effects of climate change upstate and elsewhere will also affect the five boroughs. The city receives drinking water from a distance of 200 km from the Catskills and Delaware watersheds. While the region experiences heavy rains, there is also an increase in drought levels. This means that the water comes in concentrated bursts.

Brief but heavy rainfall is not necessarily good for plants because most of the rain runs off and does not penetrate the ground where it is needed. Combined with increased disease and pests due to shorter cold seasons, these patterns could reduce local food production, which is far from meeting demand across regions, Van Abs said. The tri-state is dependent on the western half of the country for food, which is experiencing drought and wildfires.

While New York considered a leader in climate change policy, Kohler said that is not enough. The biggest step New York can take, according to experts, is to stop using fossil fuels immediately for transportation and power generation and move towards renewable energy.

But that choice is often in the hands of lawmakers, and they are often limited by the price tag, according to Pamela McElvey, a professor of human ecology at Rutgers University – the longer they wait, the more exponential are the dollar costs, human lives and ecosystems.

The economy will suffer from climate change

Climate change is having a profound impact on the economy, McKelvey said. Inflation and disruptions in value chains are a consequence of climate change. When it's too hot outside, workers can't build houses. Storm flooding is costing the city billions of dollars. Transportation and delivery disrupted. For New York, a city that must import its essentials, these supply disruptions could be life-threatening and hurt its economy.

“Climate change must be at the center of every decision we make from now on,” said McElwey, who was not involved in the creation of the IPCC report. “It literally affects everything we do in every sector of our lives, and we need to be to it as such and to develop policy as such.

While the IPCC report is intended for policy makers and decision makers, Kohler said its findings are also useful for individuals, especially the FAQ section that follows each section of the report. He stated that everyone can have an impact on climate change mitigation simply by staying out of work and minimizing air travel.