What awaits New York if Trump wins and delivers on his promises of mass deportations and tariffs
'05.11.2024'
ForumDaily New York
Mass deportations and tariffs proposed by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will impact New York City's economy, with economists and academics saying they will have devastating consequences for the city's well-being. TheCity explains why.
On the last week's rally at Madison Square Garden Trump again promised to "launch the largest deportation program in American history." He said deporting millions of immigrants, legal and illegal, would free up millions of jobs, especially for black and Hispanic Americans.
Trump argued, among other things, during the campaign that imposing tariffs on all imports into the United States would be a "great move" because the revenue would allow the government to cut taxes and lead to a boom in domestic manufacturing.
Why Trump's Plans Won't Work
But virtually no respectable economist or immigration scholar believes that Tramp rights.
A small minority of economists suggest he may be right about tariffs, but the vast majority think he is completely wrong.
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Trump's immigration and tariff policies, if implemented, would deal a devastating blow to the city's economy, according to economists who study New York.
Mass deportations would reduce the metropolis's workforce by hundreds of thousands of people. Experts warn that this would cause significant damage to businesses. As immigrants spend what they earn, the economy would lose billions of dollars in economic activity.
Trump’s massive tariffs will also sharply increase prices in New York City, which will be especially hard on already stressed low-income workers. Meanwhile, economists say the city won’t benefit even if manufacturing activity soars.
Dependence on immigrants
According to the Center for Migration Studies, about 2022 New York City workers were undocumented in 310. That number has almost certainly increased with the recent surge in asylum seekers.
These workers make up at least 7 percent of the city’s workforce — and they could be among the first to be deported en masse by Trump. According to the center, about a third work in the service sector, 19 percent in management, business, science, and the arts, 16 percent in construction and maintenance, 15 percent in manufacturing, transportation, and material handling, and 14 percent in sales.
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander believes the numbers could be significantly higher. His office estimates that about 100 New Yorkers have some form of temporary legal status, including the DACA program, Temporary Protected Status, or a pending asylum claim.
He said 1 million New Yorkers live in households where one or more members are noncitizens. That group would also be at risk of aggressive deportations.
“New York City’s economy relies heavily on the immigrants who are already here. It would be a huge blow if those workers or their families were deported,” said David Dissegaard Kallick of the Immigration Research Initiative.
Sending many people home will put pressure on the economy in other ways.
Consumer spending, which makes up about 60% of New York state's gross domestic product, will also be affected, said Lauren Melodia, an economist at the Center for New York City Affairs.
“Undocumented citizens are not just workers. Their local spending generates economic growth. It creates more jobs for all New Yorkers. The loss of 310 workers in New York City will reduce consumer spending in the local economy. This will threaten existing jobs in the short term and limit job growth in the long term,” she explained.
In addition, undocumented citizens pay about $3 billion in taxes, local and to New York state. At the federal level, they pay payroll taxes to Social Security and Medicare, although they are unlikely to qualify for these benefits.
Many businesses will have to make a difficult choice – to protect their workers or to help authorities find them.
“Immigration policy determines the ability of American businesses to attract the international talent they need to stay at the forefront of innovation and growth,” said Katie Wilde, CEO of the Partnership for New York City, which represents the city’s major financial, real estate and professional firms. “Restrictions on immigration are harmful at every level, from migrant farm workers to graduate and professional visas.”
The Pain of New York Consumers
Wilde backs economists who say raising tariffs to 60% on imports from China and 20% on goods from other countries would hurt because the cost would be passed on to American consumers.
The city is unlikely to see a manufacturing jobs boom.
New York City was once a manufacturing hub with about 1 million jobs at the end of World War II. By the 1990s, employment had fallen below 300. What remains now is what is called non-durable or light manufacturing.
Today, the city has just 57 factory jobs, or 000 percent of its 1,2 million jobs.
There is virtually no available land to place factories, even if they could afford New York's high taxes, land prices, and labor costs.
Lander, who is running for mayor to replace Adams, has argued for months that immigrants, especially asylum seekers, would benefit the city.
"Trump's immigration proposals, especially the roundups and mass deportations, are a devastating threat to the economy and spirit of New York," he said.
