At your own risk: the planes of Russian airlines will soon become dangerous to use

According to "Radio Liberty“, Aeroflot and Rossiya airlines have suspended all foreign flights since March 8. Passengers with return tickets have lost the opportunity to fly out of Russia since March 6 - they could leave the country only if they bought a one-way ticket. The Federal Air Transport Agency recommended that airlines with aircraft recorded in foreign registers stop flights abroad from 00:00 March 6, and flights from abroad from 00:00 March 8.

Russia also extended restrictions on flights to Anapa, Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, Simferopol and Elista.

These decisions were made due to the fact that the countries of the European Union, the United States, Canada and some others introduced against Russia after the invasion of the territory Ukraine. The vast majority of aircraft used by Russian airlines for civil transportation are leased from foreign companies. The latter, in turn, after the imposition of sanctions, are forced to break leasing agreements and return their equipment to them. They have until the end of March for this.

777 of the 980 passenger aircraft that Russia has are on lease. Of these, 515 aircraft were leased from foreign companies. The suspension of the passenger aircraft leasing system will affect such airlines as Aeroflot, Rossiya, Ural Airlines, S7 and Azur Air.

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In recent days, there have been several reports about the beginning of the process of returning aircraft to their owners. On March 4, a charter flight was delayed in Canada, as stated by the Minister of Transport of this country, Omar Alhabra. On March 6, at the request of the lessor, the plane of Ural Airlines was detained in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Even non-leased aircraft will be subject to sanctions

Sanctions will also apply to those aircraft that are not under lease. Prohibited service maintenance of aircraft, supply of spare parts. The American company Jeppesen has already notified the Pobeda airline that it is stopping the transfer of aeronautical information to it, which is essential for the safety of air transportation. On March 5, it also became known that Lufthansa Systems, an IT service provider for the aviation industry, is breaking off cooperation with Russian airlines.

Currently, there is no information on how aircraft leased from foreign companies can be returned by Russian companies. The countries of the European Union, the United States and Canada have closed the skies for Russian aircraft - the regime was introduced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The possible refusal of Russia to comply with the sanctions decision in the future may mean that the country will not be able to conclude such agreements with companies that provide aircraft on lease and are located in those countries of the world that have not imposed sanctions.

President Aviation and Space Manufacturers Associations Czech Republic Josef Kaspar in an interview with Radio Liberty, he spoke about how the consequences of sanctions could affect Russia's ability to carry out freight and passenger transportation.

The Russian Federation purchases the vast majority of aviation technology from abroad. Therefore, the direct impact of sanctions on the Russian economy will be clear, Kashpar says. Own technologies in Russia are not as advanced as in the West. The current sanctions apply to a wide range of aircraft. If we go, as they say, “from top to bottom”, then the Russian Federation uses European Airbus or American Boeing as cargo planes. The vast majority of these aircraft are leased. That is, the termination of leasing agreements means a lack of such aircraft for Russia.

At war, nothing can be ruled out

Kaspar added that in the current sanctions documents there is a ban not only on the sale of aircraft, but also on the provision of what is called safety information (safety information). This means that the operation of the aircraft will not be possible, since Russia will not have access to enough information to use them safely. If we talk about aircraft of the lowest category of civil aviation, here the sanctions primarily regulate the components for these aircraft.

They include not only electronics, but also the software needed to control the aircraft. Further, we are talking about certain spare parts that are now unavailable for Russia. With military aircraft, the situation is very similar, but in this area the dependence is not so great, since Russia itself produces almost everything they need.

According to Kashpar, in a state of war, nothing can be ruled out. Including the fact that Western aircraft available in Russia will serve domestic flights. The owners of the planes will not be able to arrest them, as the planes will not get into Airports countries that have imposed sanctions. Information is already appearing in the media that the nationalization of Western assets in Russia may occur. But according to the contracts, they are obliged to return the planes to their owners. The question remains whether Russia will comply with these agreements.

It is likely that Western companies may resell their leases to Chinese companies. But in this case, the service of these aircraft will still be impossible. This means that they are considered unusable. Under these conditions, they will have limited opportunities. That is, they will be able to fly and land only in countries that are not parties to international law. There are only a few such countries, and this will not help Russia solve the problem that has arisen.

There won't be as many planes as there used to be

That is, it will be possible to board such an aircraft only at your own peril and risk. But ordinary people will feel not only this. After all, travel even within Russia for Russians will no longer be possible with such intensity as it was before. Simply put, there will not be so many planes. And, of course, you need to take into account the risks in terms of security. Aircraft has a special control regime. There are pre-flight inspections, post-flight inspections, as well as service inspections, which are carried out after a certain number of flights. In other words, civil aircraft undergo service and technical inspection several times a year when certain parts are replaced. But because of the embargo, Russia now has no access to them.

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Also, the manufacturer cannot sell spare parts to countries if there is a risk that they will be resold to Russia. Now parts for civilian aircraft will be controlled in the same way as it happens in the case of weapons. Whoever buys this thing must sign end user certificate (certificate prohibiting the resale of purchased), which states that he is the end user of the parts. That is, with a legal purchase, these components cannot enter the Russian market.

Sanctions also apply to space technology

But this is not only about civil aviation, but also about space technologies. Russia has worked closely with the West in this area. Namely, Western countries used Russian engines and rockets when flying into space. Now this cooperation has come to an end, with extremely negative consequences for Russia.

Western countries can no longer sell space technologies to Russia - electronics, software, some special materials. But it also works the other way around. All this can no longer be bought from Russia. That is, the extremely successful cooperation in the space industry will now be stopped. A simple example can be given: the international space station Mir. Now the big question is whether it will exist at all. After all, this is the common property of Russia and different countries of the world. The problems that have arisen are extremely extensive, and now lawyers, politicians, etc. trying to find a way to solve these problems. But they all agree that it is impossible to return everything to the state before the attack on Ukraine. We need to focus on the consequences, says Josef Kaspar.

It is possible to renegotiate contracts, but this will lead to high costs.

Expert Associations for International Affairs Kryshtof Krulish says leasing companies may try to renegotiate their contracts outside of countries where sanctions apply. But this can lead to high costs and risks.

Krulish says that to understand the implications of the decision to terminate leases, it's worth saying that half of the aircraft worldwide are not directly owned by air carriers. Airlines rent planes and do not provide maintenance services, for which they pay certain monthly payments. This allows you to have more modern aircraft in your fleet without having to invest your own capital. This allows airlines to make more affordable air travel.

Before the imposition of sanctions, the Russian market completely copied the world market. Approximately half of the aircraft used in civil aviation were leased. The sanctions affected leasing companies in the European Union, the USA, Canada, etc. At the same time, in the world - in Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore - there are also similar companies. But even if Russia decides to reorient its leasing to these markets, it will not necessarily end successfully. For example, companies in Dubai will refuse to enter into contracts with Russian airlines due to concerns about solvency. On the one hand, there are sanctions against some Russian banks, and they cannot use SWIFT, on the other hand, payments in currencies are limited. Thus, even those leasing companies that do not operate in countries that have imposed sanctions will be cautious.

In addition, there is the Cape Town Treaty, which allows aircraft to be detained in all countries, its signatories. At the same time, we have already seen how a Russian plane was detained in Egypt, which is not a party to this agreement.