New lockdown in New York: when to expect it and what is known

Number of new cases COVID-19 continues to rise in New York. Despite this, the authorities are in no hurry to announce a new lockdown, although they regularly talk about it. What is known about the terms and conditions of its introduction, the newspaper writes City & State NY.

When the coronavirus outbreak broke out in New York this spring, Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio were arguing about quarantining five boroughs of the city. Then de Blasio first proposed to introduce the Shelter in Place order. Cuomo refused, but the order was eventually put into effect five days later.

Expert Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), believes this delay has caused a spike in disease and death in the early spring. “Earlier action would probably have prevented the worst peak of the epidemic,” he said in April.

Now that new COVID-19 outbreaks are occurring across the state, city and state governments are once again faced with a similar choice: whether to introduce a lockdown or not.

De Blasio and Cuomo have repeatedly warned of a possible re-lockdown, but none of them said when it would happen.

Earlier this week, de Blasio suggested that a lockdown in New York could be introduced after the Christmas holidays. However, the mayor recalled that the final decision on this issue should be made by the state governor.

Cuomo doesn't seem to be ready for a lockdown. “We are slowing down the spread of (coronavirus. - Ed.), so we don't have to close anything, Cuomo said at a press conference on Thursday, December 17, suggesting overall the possibility of avoiding a state lockdown. "With the vaccine, we will turn this page in life and be ready by 2021."

While the number of new cases of COVID-19 is on the rise in New York City, the situation is similar across the state. A particularly strong surge occurred in its western part. There, for several weeks, one of the highest incidence rates of COVID-19 was recorded. Earlier this month, authorities warned that if the rate of hospitalization did not slow down, non-essential businesses in the region would be closed.

On the subject: New York is gearing up for another 'full lockdown'

As of December 15, the incidence rate of COVID-19 in western New York was 6,70%. Mohawk Valley and Central New York are also problem areas with positive scores of 8,11% and 6,96%, respectively. As of Tuesday, December 15, the positive testing rate in New York was 4,14%.

As morbidity data change, government decisions on whether to declare a second lockdown may also change. Here is what is known about this at the moment.

What Cuomo & De Blasio Say About New York's Second Lockdown

Both the mayor of New York and the governor of the state are inclined to believe that the closure of non-essential businesses can occur. This order will be introduced at the state level, not individual regions. That is, the final decision on the lockdown will be made by Cuomo.

Why is it necessary to re-quarantine

Such a measure will prevent overloading hospitals, as it was in the spring.

On December 14, Cuomo said the surge in hospitalizations for COVID-19 could soon reach a threshold, leading to quarantine in New York. “If we do not change the trajectory, then we may well head to the stop,” he said.

Meanwhile, de Blasio is monitoring the increase in hospital admissions in the city, which surpassed 16 on Wednesday December 6000th. “The rate of positive tests is too high. The number of hospitalizations is growing, he said. “Our hospitals are performing much better, which means they are better at coping with the pandemic than in spring. But the number of hospitalizations continues to rise. And I'm worried about that. "

If the number of hospitalizations is growing, why is not quarantine introduced?

The number of hospital admissions in the state has grown by 62% in the past 14 days. New York City alone has a hospitalization rate of 3,06 per 100 residents, the highest since de Blasio began reporting data this month, according to NBC New York.

So why wait for closure? First, the state has set a new metric for a full lockdown, and the city has not yet reached that threshold. The governor will order quarantine in the region if the capacity of the hospital in it reaches the threshold of 90% and holds at this level for three weeks.

Another reason why the authorities are in no hurry to introduce a full lockdown is business. If the quarantine is introduced, the business, already affected by the previous closure, will face devastating financial costs. “This is a really tough decision for our leaders to make,” said Anna Bershteyn, assistant professor of population health at New York University's Grossman School of Medicine. "They should try to balance economic and health damage."

Unlike in the spring, when small businesses were able to take advantage of some federal assistance in fulfilling orders to close production, this time federal lawmakers were unable to come to the rescue. The failure to impose pandemic restrictions this fall and winter is largely attributable to insecurity for businesses such as New York City restaurants, which were forced to stop serving indoors this week.

On the subject: COVID-19 vaccine: how many doses will New York get and when

As we approach the peak of the holiday season, the risk of financial losses in the event of closing shops and restaurants is especially high. “This is prime time for them, especially given the COVID-19 situation and the previous closure,” explained Randy Peers, president of the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce, and urged stores in Brooklyn to abandon the next closure.

Berstein said that from a public health perspective, the best move for New York is to quarantine as early as possible. “From a health perspective, it would be better to close stores as soon as possible,” she said. “That would mean fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths. We can close and then reopen in three to four weeks. ”

Neither de Blasio nor Cuomo responded to requests for comment on such a proposal.

Re-quarantine: how it will be

It is not yet clear when the re-lockdown will be introduced, but it is known that the restrictions it will bring will be different from those in force during the Pause plan. “We are now seeing extraordinary success in keeping our schools safe,” de Blasio said on Tuesday December 15th. "I want them to keep working."

Given how long it took to open schools, it is clear that closing them will be the subject of serious debate in the event of another lockdown.

Already, the city's teachers' union is pushing to close schools if a second lockdown is introduced. "If the rate of coronavirus infection rises to such an extent that shelter in place is required throughout the city, it would be irresponsible to keep school buildings open," said Michael Mulgrew, president of the United Federation of Teachers.