US Presidential Elections: What awaits Ukraine and Russia under Trump or Harris

Today, November 5, America is electing a new president. The ratings of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who are fighting for this post, are almost equal. DW explains what each of their election victories means for the future of Ukraine and US relations with Russia.

The outcome of the presidential elections In the United States, according to observers, it will not only determine the course for the country's further development, but will also have a huge impact on the course of the war in Ukraine.

Washington has been providing Kyiv with the most support of any ally in the war against Russia. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has shared military intelligence with Ukraine and has provided about $175 billion in financial aid and advanced weapons.

Whoever is elected president of the United States may hold Ukraine’s fate in his or her hands. When the new occupant of the White House takes office on January 20, 2025, Russia will have been at war with Ukraine for nearly three years. The United States has three options: cut aid to Kyiv, maintain the status quo, or take a more forceful approach, says Michaela Mattes, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. She specializes in international conflict and cooperation.

Kamala Harris, Russia and the War in Ukraine

Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has made her support for Ukraine clear.

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“Harris has promised to stay with Ukraine as long as it takes,” recalled Sean Donahue, an associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo in New York. In his assessment, Harris “is more likely to allow the use of U.S. long-range weapons against targets inside Russia.”

Mattes agrees that Kamala Harris will at least maintain the status quo, support Ukraine, and maintain sanctions against Russia. In fact, she may even become much more assertive and take a tougher stance to establish herself as a strong leader.

For the current vice president, Mattes adds, European security and global stability are at stake.

“Harris sees Russia as a dangerous country that has violated international law and moral principles, and Moscow can no longer be trusted,” she said.

Donald Trump, Russia and the War in Ukraine

Republican presidential candidate Donald Tramp, who has surrounded himself with like-minded advisers, has taken a different approach to Ukraine. Trump has a complicated history with Kiev, including his attempt to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden in 2019, a story that ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment attempt.

Speaking about his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has claimed that the war would not have happened if he were in the White House. Now Trump has promised to end the war “within 24 hours” if he wins the presidency again. With no details on how the 45th president plans to do this, many analysts assume that any such peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv would benefit Russia.

According to Sean Donahue, Donald Trump could force Ukraine to agree to some kind of freeze in the conflict along roughly the current battle lines. That would mean the Ukrainians losing some of their territory. It's unclear whether Putin would agree to such terms in the long term, but they would give his army time to rearm, Donahue believes.

The Republican candidate has also made it clear that Europe should provide Ukraine with stronger support, adds Dominik Tolksdorf, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). In his opinion, cutting vital Western aid to Kyiv could pose a critical issue. If the Americans cut it off completely, it would be difficult for European governments to support Ukraine on their own. This would give the Kremlin more leeway to impose its will on Ukraine, warns Tolksdorf, an expert on US politics and transatlantic relations.

Ukraine and its possible NATO membership

Another hot-button issue is Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. Donahue, who has visited Ukraine twice since the war began, said Kamala Harris would likely support Ukraine’s membership in the alliance at some point.

One proposal currently under discussion is a membership model that assumes that the country will not regain control of its territory within the 1991 borders. In this case, NATO would be obliged to defend only the part of it that is currently controlled by Kiev. This would be similar to the situation with Germany before the reunification of Germany. On the other hand, notes Donahue, Trump is sharply critical of the Alliance, even proposing not to defend some of its members, which, in his opinion, do not allocate enough funds for defense.

Despite such hostility toward NATO, Donald Trump could bring Ukraine closer to the alliance as part of a settlement process that ends the war, according to Kurt Volker, the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for Ukraine from 2017 to 2019. Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be part of “permanent peace and permanent deterrence,” he said in early October.

The next composition of Congress will be of great importance

Changes in the US Congress after the elections will have no less impact than the candidacy of the new American president. Congressmen approve spending bills. On November 5, in addition to the president, Americans will re-elect a third of the members of the Senate - 34 out of 100 - and all 435 congressmen sitting in the House of Representatives. Maintaining the Democratic Party's majority in the House of Representatives will be crucial for Kamala Harris to continue to supply weapons and aid to Ukraine.

At the same time, many Republicans assume that China, Iran, and North Korea are indirectly involved in the war against Ukraine, Dominic Tolksdorf clarifies. For these legislators, a defeat of Kyiv would be a strategic success for their enemies and “would weaken the position of the United States in the world.”

Americans are skeptical about Russia

Another concern is that the American public will become war weary.

According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in early July, the share of respondents who believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine poses a threat to U.S. interests has dropped significantly since 2022.

The Pew study found that 69% of respondents approve of economic sanctions against Russia, while 54% want the United States to continue sending military equipment to Kyiv. Overall, Americans were evenly divided on whether their country should help Ukraine at all.
Russia certainly hopes for a Donald Trump victory in the election. Not only because he could help Vladimir Putin gain a foothold in Ukraine, but also because, if he became president, Trump could further divide American society and destabilize democracy in the United States, says Dominic Tolksdorf from DGAP.

“The Kremlin hopes that under Trump the US will be primarily concerned with itself and will not be able to be an active player in international politics,” the expert concluded.