Life up to 130 years in the XXI century: will people become centenarians in the near future

Longevity is a fairly popular topic among people. She is described in various works of art. And scientists have been researching it for many years. Voice of America talks about research at the University of Washington.

Adrian Rafteri, a researcher at the University of Washington, argues that scientists disagree on longevity. Some argue that there is a limit to longevity. In one work, the figure was even named 115 years. Others believe that there is no proof of the existence of boundaries. Still others argue that a person who will live to be 1000 years old has already been born.

Many people have declared their longevity. And if we talk about the documented, official centenarians, then the record was broken by the Frenchwoman Jeanne Kalman. She died in 1997 at 122 years old.

Scientists from the University of Washington believe that Kalman's record will be broken this century. “There will be at least one person in this century who will live more than 122 years,” says Rafteri.

“And we assume that he will live to be 125-126 years old. Chances are real that someone will overcome the 132-year mark, ”the researcher added.

Not genetics at all, but mathematics helped scientists figure out this fact. More precisely, the mathematical model they created. It is based on several important principles.

Rafteri argues that there is one not-so-well-known pattern of mortality. It is of great importance in their work. Its essence is that the older a person is, the more chances he has of dying. “Naturally, they are more than 90 at 80 years old. But when they reach the age of 110, this pattern stops,” he says.

According to him, in subsequent years, this pattern is still the same 50%.

Extreme value theory

Scientists also used extreme value theory. Within its framework, the probability of events that deviate very strongly from all that have been observed previously is estimated. According to Rafteri, they have created forecasting methods in collaboration with the UN. Thanks to these methods, they were able to calculate how many people can live to be 110 years old. Now there are about 1000 such centenarians. By 2080, the number of such people is expected to grow to 15000. All this is due to the expected increase in life expectancy. These numbers show data from 13 countries.

The more people live to be 110, the more likely they are to break the longevity record. For the study, information from the international database of centenarians was used. According to the researcher, the database includes information from only 13 countries. These countries can provide really good quality data, very well documented cases of longevity. This eliminates fraud, because scientists must be confident in the results of their research.

People in the 21st century will live to be 135

According to scientists, the longevity record will be broken this century with almost 100% certainty.

However, as the model showed, hardly anyone will be able to live more than 21 years in the 135st century. The scientists added that their research does not directly address such a thing as "life expectancy".

In the developed countries today, life expectancy was 40 years, says Rafteri. Now she is 80 years old. This growth was due to improvements in behavioral health care systems. Therefore, more and more people live to be 110 years old. In their research, the University of Washington scientists focused more on the extreme values ​​of longevity.

The number of people living up to 100 years old is much higher than the number of people living up to 110 years old. There are now about 500000 such centenarians, and in a few decades there will be millions of them.

It is possible that this will become not only an interesting fact, but also a factor for governments and companies in calculating their economies.